A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk poll indicates that if Joe Biden and Donald Trump face off again for the White House in 2024, they will each confront substantial challenges. The challenges are the opposite for both, according to the poll, indicating that the former president has deep but narrow support among his 2020 voters. In contrast, the current president’s backing among his 2020 voters is broad but not very deep, putting him at risk of losing support from a credible Democratic nominee or an independent candidate.
Biden’s Standing among Voters is Broad but Shallow
Although 85% of Biden’s 2020 voters approve of his job as president, only 10% disapprove, and 43% are less excited about supporting him next time. This disparity could be a significant factor in persuading supporters to cast their ballots, making his base more vulnerable to a credible challenger for the nomination or a third-party candidate in the general election.
Trump’s Support is Deep but Narrow
On the other hand, 93% of the voters who supported Trump in 2020 approve of the job he did as president. They are more excited about voting for him in 2024 than they were last time. However, this support is mainly among a specific segment of the electorate, making it hard for him to expand his support in the general election.
Biden Has Managed to Govern in a Way that Has Satisfied Most of His Supporters
For a party with many factions, Biden has done an excellent job of satisfying most of the voters who put him in the White House, regardless of their political leanings. This is a considerable strength for a reelection campaign, which has eluded his predecessors who were defeated for reelection.
Trump’s Legal Problems Could be Both an Asset and a Liability
Two-thirds of Trump’s voters say that his legal troubles do not bother them. However, the remaining supporters say that the indictments make them more likely to support him, not less likely. This makes it challenging for his rivals in the GOP to criticize him on his legal problems. However, it could also repel other voters, even those who agree with him on policy.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the poll indicates that a potential rematch between Biden and Trump would present different challenges for each. Biden’s standing is broad but shallow, while Trump’s support is deep but narrow. Biden has managed to govern in a way that satisfies most of his supporters, while Trump’s legal troubles could be both an asset and a liability. Ultimately, the uncertainties underscored by the poll suggest that neither candidate would have an easy path to victory in a 2024 election.
